One-Chance (3 Tiles Visible): A Defensive Tactic for Push-Fold Decisions

Introduction

“One-Chance” refers to a situation where 3 of a particular tile are visible (in discards, calls, or your hand).

While not a guaranteed safe tile, it provides valuable defensive information useful for push-fold decisions.

What is One-Chance?

The 3-Tiles-Visible State

Imagine is visible 3 times, and an opponent declares riichi.

Dealing into a ryanmen wait with or would only happen if the riichi player has the remaining 1 copy of AND it’s part of their final ryanmen wait shape.

Probabilistic Thinking

While the opponent might have that , if they hold it as part of a completed sequence like or , then or won’t deal into a ryanmen wait.

Thinking this way, we can conclude that or are slightly safer than tiles with no information at all.

How to Use One-Chance

As a Push-Fold Criterion

When you’re in a borderline situation, you can use One-Chance as a decision point: “I’ll fold if I draw a completely dangerous tile, but I’ll push if I can discard a One-Chance tile.”

Specific Use Cases

One-Chance becomes a useful factor in situations like:

You’re tenpai and one tile away from winning
You have few safe tiles against opponent’s riichi
Point situation requires you to push
It’s still early in the round, so deal-in probability is relatively low

Combining Suji and One-Chance

Combining Reads for Higher Safety

One-Chance can be combined with Suji for even better reads.

Example:

A: has been discarded → Won’t deal into ryanmen wait
B: Three or are visible → Dealing into ryanmen wait is One-Chance

This combination tells us has somewhat higher safety.

Limitations and Cautions of One-Chance

It’s Not a Safe Tile

Remember: One-Chance is NOT a safe tile.

Keep these points in mind:

There’s still a possibility of dealing into a ryanmen wait
You can still deal into kanchan, penchan, tanki, or shanpon waits
The opponent might have the remaining 1 copy

Decreased Safety in Late Game

Especially in the late game, when many tiles have already passed safely against a riichi and the possible wait types have narrowed down, One-Chance safety decreases.

For example, if the riichi player’s wait is narrowed to about 2 types, the probability that a One-Chance tile is one of those waits increases.

Example: Late Game Danger

Against a riichi on turn 15:
・Already safe tiles: 20+ types
・Remaining dangerous tiles: Only a few types
→ Even One-Chance has a higher chance of dealing in

Mental Preparation

Don’t Get Frustrated When You Deal In

One-Chance only means it’s less likely (not impossible) to deal into a ryanmen wait — there’s still risk.

If you deal in on Suji, No-Chance, or One-Chance, don’t get frustrated or flustered.

Treat It as a Learning Opportunity

When you deal in, instead of thinking “It was supposed to be safe… argh!”, consider it a valuable learning example. Think “So in this case, even One-Chance can deal in” and apply that knowledge going forward.

In mahjong and in life, nothing good comes from getting frustrated…

Advanced Technique: Exploiting One-Chance

Turning Defense into Offense

Intermediate and advanced players sometimes exploit Suji and One-Chance to steal wins from opponents.

Example:

Three are visible, and you riichi waiting on or
You’re hoping opponents think “It’s One-Chance, so it’s safe” and discard into you

Since Suji and One-Chance are popular defensive references, offensive exploitation is naturally possible.

Practical Application of One-Chance

Tiered Decision Making

Use One-Chance in push-fold decisions with this tiered thinking:

Safety	Status	Decision
High	Genbutsu, Suji + No-Chance	Discard
Med-Hi	Suji alone, No-Chance alone	Situational discard
Medium	One-Chance	Judge by points and turn
Med-Lo	One-Chance + Suji	Borderline
Low	Non-suji middle tiles	Generally fold

Decision Examples

Push Decision:

You’re tenpai with high value
Point situation requires it
Early in the round (before turn 10)
One-Chance + Suji combination

Fold Decision:

You’re 1-shanten or worse
Opponent’s riichi looks strong
Late game (turn 15+)
One-Chance alone with no other information

No-Chance: 4-tiles-visible state
Suji: Reading safe tiles from riichi player’s discards
Kabe (Wall): General term for visibility-based defense
Oshi-Hiki (Push-Fold): Decision to push or fold
Anzen-hai (Safe tile): General term for safe tiles

Summary

One-Chance refers to a state where 3 of a tile are visible. While not a guaranteed safe tile, it can be judged as safer than tiles with no information.

It’s particularly useful for push-fold decisions, and combining it with Suji enables more accurate reads.

However, don’t forget that safety decreases in the late game, and always make appropriate decisions based on the situation.

When you deal in, treat it as a learning opportunity and apply that knowledge going forward.